Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
BTC price drop might be over for now but we should be careful, as the market has not yet decided the direction for the next moves. The price continues to move in the lower boundary of the smaller parallel channel while there is a high possibility to return in it. As the price lays around $9,100, the expectations are to move either back in the small parallel channel or in the lower support level at $8,600.
The second scenario might become a reality in several days or weeks as it might be the second release after a compression period. The compression period might be inside the previous parallel channel or in a new one, narrower at a lower level. We want to highlight that the volume is quite low in recent weeks, showing that no major move will occur if there is no decisive volume from the investors (bullish or bearish).
The moving averages have crossed between March and June, 6 times while the last signal is a bearish one. The 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average downward, which was proved right at $9,600. The current price is around $9,150, a -- 4.5% drop, given that bears a significant profit from that move.
In the short-term diagram, we could observe a steady downtrend in the entire June, as the price peaked around $10,200 and now lays around $9,150, a -- 10 % drop. The bearish trend could continue in the next days and we expect the two above described scenarios to take place. Also, we should point out that major trends have not been established on a larger scale and we should one to happen in the future.
Indicators
The indicators moved steadily, with no major or minor surprises. The MACD index is moving on the negative zone, showing the lack of momentum in the market and the absence of the spark for more decisive moves. In parallel, the RSI index lays near value = 45, which shows that there is a need for more action in the market in order to make a decision for long -- term investments.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The price rebounds from the last drop around $225. This shows that the upper boundary of a previous parallel channel proved to be a strong support level at $220. The last parallel channel in the Ethereum market lasts the entire May, leading to a surge in Ethereum's price. This channel shows that bullish investors have taken positions on the upper side of this channel that is willing to support further in the market. We expect a continuation of the stability in the market across the previous support level.
In case of a major correlation with Bitcoin, there is a possibility of breaking the support levels, leading in another trend-setting, a bearish one. Regarding the moving averages crosses, after the last bearish signal, the 50-day moving average is leaning towards the 200-day moving average to create to "Golden Cross" signal. The "Golden Cross" signal is often a bullish signal that might be proved right and wrong according to the established situation. In Ethereum's case, some "Golden Cross" signals were proven wrong, showing that there is nothing sure in the crypto market.
Indicators
MACD index continued to move in the negative zone for the last 3 weeks, showing little or no evidence regarding Ethereum's future. We should highlight that a continuous negative trend in the MACD index might indicate a bearish trend in the market. In parallel, the RSI index is moving in the centre of the index boundaries, predicting future stability in the next days, without major changes in the price.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Ripple continued its pattern from the start of March. The parabola formed predicts a return to the low prices, formed around mid-March, so we should expect a further drop in Ripple's price What we can observe in the second part of the parabola is that the price is trying to hold some days around a certain price level but it fails. After the failure, there is a severe drop where the price stabilizes again around a certain level. At this moment, the price is compressed during the last days, showing that in the next days, we should expect another minor move in either direction.
The moving averages have still a major gap between them in order to form a "Golden Cross" signal, showing that the market remains at a bearish mode, without any signal for reversing it. We could say that the volume lays around at normal levels as no major move takes place. We should point out that trend and Ripple's volume seem uncorrelated as the price drop maintains the same volume as before.
Indicators
MACD is sinking more in the negative zone, showing that the bears have done their job well and wait for the right moment to claim their profits. The two lines are moving really close, showing that a major move might disturb the market and lead to unexpected results. It's important to point out that the RSI index moves really close to the oversold area, predicting that a further drop in the price will create bullish signals and a potential reversal on the market.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The "boring" market of cryptocurrencies shows a predictable move yesterday as it continues to lay on the lower boundary of the parallel channel, formed since early-May in the market. The price stands around $41, with little volume to support it. The $41 support level is considered a mid-term support level in Litecoin's market, which has been supported several times during the last months.
The problem in Litecoin's market is that there are no lower support levels in the recent future that might reduce the risk of a bullish investor. That means that Litecoin may be considered as a risky investment for the short-term period as there are no sure support levels that will stop a possible downtrend if it happens.
The moving averages' gap is still considerable for the "Golden Cross" signal to appear while the last signal was a bearish one, showing that the downtrend continues in the next period. We expect the continuation of stability in the market and a slight upturn in the coming days for return in the parallel channel.
Indicators
The two lines of the MACD index are moving too closely on the negative zone, showing that a major move in the Litecoin market (something almost impossible in this case) will reverse the situation in the market and create new momentum for it. The RSI index moves close to value = 40, showing that there is still a way for a downtrend before there is an uptrend.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
As the majority of the examined cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Cash return in the parallel channel, which was formed over the previous period. The parallel channel between $220 and $ 260 is moving towards a compressing formation, predicting that a major move is possible to occur. Bitcoin Cash shows the largest correlation with Bitcoin in terms of price, a fact that shows its dependence on other assets and less on its fundamentals.
The fact that Bitcoin Cash is a Bitcoin fork can show us that its price and volatility derive from other markets, which are often a good predictor for its price. The moving averages, in this case, have a wide gap between them, showing that a bullish signal is quite impossible at this moment. We also want to point out that the volume in Bitcoin Cash's market is rather low in contrast with other cryptocurrencies, giving less liquidity to its investors. Less liquidity in the market makes harder the profit capitalization for investors and less attractive for them.
Indicators
MACD index is moving similarly with other cryptos' as the two lines are moving closer, with a potential breakout at any moment. The negative zone on the MACD index shows that the market is on the bearish side while the RSI index rebounded from the oversold area back to the normal levels. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin Cash may show a "buy signal" a couple of days before but it didn't become a reality.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.92 (- 0.02), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.84 (- 0.05), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.87 (- 0.04), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.92 (- 0.02)
The correlations between Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies lowered since the weekend, showing that the market is trying to separate from each crypto from another. The diversification issue is strong in the crypto space while many investors focus on a single coin to put their money on because they believe that all cryptos are moving towards the same direction. As we have mentioned in previous articles, cryptos remain a hedge investment for large investors who want to diversify their portfolio from traditional stocks and bonds.
