The sudden rise and extreme returns: As we discussed in the previous paragraph, many investors try to rise altcoins' price by buying massive amounts of them in different exchanges. The sudden buy for massive amounts of altcoins increases their values in very short-time, granting profits to long-term investors and momentum in the existing market situation. The number of investors that will enter the market, buying or selling, will determine the market intensity and direction for the entire crypto market.
Speaking for Bitcoin, the weekend was a very calm period, without any significant price move. Weekends were always calm for Bitcoin but alt-season makes it even more intense. Although there was no intense move, the "Golden Cross'' signal appeared in the market. Even if the "Golden Cross' signal is a bullish signal, we should take into consideration that in this case, the 200-day moving average lowered so much that meets the 50-day moving average. This means that the market is in a constant stable level, allowing short-term and mid-term metrics to converge and give fake signals. Investors should be very careful about this signal as there is no momentum or moves in the market that indicate a rise in the next few days. We will revise it in the next analysis.
In the short-term diagram, we can observe that price compression is stronger during the last 2 weeks, waiting for alt season's end to decide the final direction for the market. The price compression usually ends with a sharp move in either direction, indicating that investors have found a new fundamental to boost or drop the price to new levels. We expect the compression to continue until the alt season's break when there will be new data in the market.
Indicators
The MACD index moves in the positive area, but in the negative values for both lines, showing that the momentum in the market could be much lower than depicted in the index. In parallel, the RSI index is on value = 50, showing that the market is on stable mode and there is no clear signal for future moves in the market.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
After the "Golden Cross" signal, many analysts believe that every altcoin will gain profits in every market. The truth is that over the weekend, Ethereum's market kept calm without major outbreaks on the positive side. The price remained at high levels, above $240, a price level reached three times before during the year. The triple high is a crucial point for Ethereum as it is considered a bearish signal, indicating Ethereum's weakness to break the $250 resistance.
We expect a further rise in the next few days due to the alt season's momentum that lasts for some days or weeks and give the opportunity to traders to take advantage of it. As we told before, we think that the $250 resistance break will be essential for establishing a new trend in the market.
Indicators
MACD index confirms that the momentum in the market is positive and strong, expecting a further rise in the next few days. In parallel, the RSI index shows that there is more potential for rising as RSI's value is still below 60.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
As we have told in previous articles, Ripple is considered the most independent cryptocurrency from the batch we examine in our articles. This means that Ripple's returns in the altseason are much higher than any other crypto's returns. If an investor had put his money during the last week in Ripple, he would gain profits up to 15 % in a single week. Independence comes at a cost for Ripple's case. While the returns seem much higher at this moment, there is a small possibility for correction against the market and its price to return back to the parallel channel formed during the last two months.
On the other hand, if Ripple continues to move according to the altseason's momentum, there is a severe possibility to gain more traction from investors and reach new highs in the market. As we can observe in the diagram, Ripple's price is heavily correlated with the volume, showing that increasing volume will drive the price in the next few days.
Indicators
MACD index shows that the market's momentum is really on the rise, bringing the market in a positive situation that will be continued according to altseason's momentum. On the other hand, the RSI index moved to the "dangerous" area above value = 60. This means that a potential rise in the next few days might activate an overbought signal that will make some investors liquidate their positions in Ripple and make the coin to drop.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
After the "Golden Cross" signal, a new trend seems to appear in the Litecoin market. Since the start of July, the price found the parallel channel bottom around $41 and it started a new positive trend leading to the "Golden Cross" signal and a new trend establishment at $45. Even if the new trend seems to turn positive until now, it hasn't broken yet the previous trend, which was bearish.
The previous trend was formed between $47 and $41 and has a negative slope. This means that the new micro-trend hasn't formed a heavy momentum in the market that will define the next day for Litecoin. We can also observe that this rise is much slower than previous rises during the last two months. This fact could show us that the factors behind this rise are different than the previous times.
We expect Litecoin to follow the rest of the alt season's momentum and try to break the upper boundary of the parallel channel. If Litecoin doesn't manage to break this resistance level, then it would be very difficult to sustain any positive price level in the next period.
Indicators
MACD index is on the positive side, with one line in positive values and one in negative values. This means that price could fluctuate a little more before establishing a new trend. In parallel, the RSI index is below value = 60, showing that there is potential for more rise in the market in the next few days.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
After the "Golden Cross'' signal, Bitcoin Cash moves towards a neutral trend, without any clear direction. The price gets compressed over the last days, showing investors that there is more unpredictability in the market as there is no clear direction in the market, even if we are at the start of the alt season. A price compression shows that the price will move to another direction after the break. In this case, we believe that Bitcoin Cash will break the price compression positively, following the altseason's momentum.
Although there is definitely positive momentum in the market, we should consider that Bitcoin Cash didn't have the power to break the established trend, creating second thoughts on investors for its ability to create profits in the best potential season. We expect certain stability in the next few days, followed by a compression break that will determine the coin's future during the alt-season.
Indicators
MACD index is moving near the zero lines, showing that the momentum has turned positive in the market. On the other hand, the RSI index shows us that the price isn't moving on a potential rise but it might move neutrally over the next few days. We should also take notice that Bitcoin Cash has the heaviest correlation with Bitcoin, establishing another factor in our analysis.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.91 (+ 0.11), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.76 (+ 0.20 ), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.84 (+ 0.09), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.91 (+ 0.11)
The correlations went up during the weekend, showing that extreme returns went back to normal levels, establishing the start of the alt season. Correlation coefficients can predict an alt season breakout when those coefficients between Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies start to decline and reach levels of medium or low correlation. The medium or low correlation indicates that altcoins usually have higher or lower returns than Bitcoin. In this case, we see that altcoins have higher returns than Bitcoin, with sharper changes in their prices in a shorter time period.
