Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Bitcoin gained another uptrend during the last few days, showing that investors are on the move to allocate capitals between different assets, looking for the best returns in the market. In Bitcoin's case, we observe that the price broke positively the small parallel channel that was formed between $11,200 and $11,600. The price lays at $11,800, creating a new high for 2020 and extending the bullish period for another week.
The channel break wasn't very sharp due to the size of the channel. The particular channel is considered to be a small one and the price didn't manage to compress a lot before release at $11,800. The second wave of the uptrend is still unstable and the price might end up again between the previous channel at $11,200. This scenario is considered a modest one as there is a possibility for a market reversal towards a bearish trend that could vanish into thin air all the profits that were made during this period.
The pessimistic scenario for Bitcoin will be to return back to $9,000 (as an average price) and continue its previous trend without major surges. The moving averages didn't seem to cross in the next days while the 200-day average is climbing to reach the 50-day one. When the price moves a stable trend, it is highly possible for the two averages to move on the same level. This creates a lot of fake signals as it happened during the stability period between May and July. This is why we believe that a sharp move that will activate a "Golden Cross" or a reverse "Golden Cross" is much more reliable than continuous signals regarding those two averages.
In the short-term diagram, we can observe that several days with lower volatility are followed by a day or two that the volatility exceeds the average and leads to a new standard for the market. The days with lower volatility are considered as days that there are no major news or indicators that will have an impact on the market. This fact was much more established in the early days of Bitcoin when every news was actually affecting the price according to its weight. This phenomenon has been reduced in the last years but still has a certain effect on the market.
Indicators
MACD index is moving positively but the two lines move parallel, indicating that the market has sustained a certain momentum at this moment. This shows that the majority of investors have a positive outlook in the market, sustaining their positions in it. On the other hand, the RSI index returned to the "overbought area", indicating a "sell" signal for the investors.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Ethereum seems to stabilize its price around $400, creating an overall return of 85 % since the stability period between June and July. The stability of the price might indicate that the majority of investors believe that Ethereum has reached its peak for this period. This means that they will not increase their positions while there is a possibility for severe liquidations in the next period.
The volume remains at higher levels, showing that bearish investors met with bullish investors, keeping the market at a certain level. This fact creates also depth in the market, make it harder for an immediate drop during the next period. The moving averages have still a wide gap between them, showing that the market momentum is still on Ethereum's side, without any bending that will indicate a reverse in the market. The possibility of a downtrend is not evident from the technical perspective but if it happens, the market hasn't form clear support levels during the ascending. The only exception is considered the $320 point, where there was a small resistance in the previous days.
Indicators
MACD index stays positive but the first line seems to bend, creating a lower momentum in the market. The lower momentum is more dangerous for the future as it indicates that there is a possibility for market reversal. In any case, we should be very careful about the next moves as the RSI index continues to strongly suggest investors selling. The value remains above 80, which means that the price continues to move at unexpected levels and it should correct in the upcoming period.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The stabilization period has also started for Ripple, showing that the price finds a stable level of around $0.30. This level might be considered as a psychological frontier for the Ripple market that will break in the next alt-season or general bullish trend in the crypto market. Even though, the $0.30 point means that Ripple gained profits around 80 % since the lower point of the major parallel channel between May and July.
This return means that Ripple was one of the winners in the crypto market and many investors will capitalize on their profits and liquidate their positions. The moving averages are still moving in separate ways, showing that a reversal in the market might delay for some days. The volume is decreasing, showing that the market has not established yet enough depth at this level to sustain it. This could lead to other problems as there would be instability in this point, which is crucial for Ripple's next moves, always in correlation with the rest of the crypto market.
Indicators
MACD index remains positive but the momentum in the market seems to decrease, leading many analysts to believe that there would a reverse in the market as Ripple had reached its peak. On the same page, the RSI index shows that Ripple is overvalued and strongly suggest to sell it, leading to more concerns about its future.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Litecoin rebounded after the correction and laid at $59, creating hopes for the investors for the trend continuation. The uptrend seems to be much smoother than other coins, leading to the belief that the price has not been determined yet. The price was moving between $57 and $61, without major changes in the volume, leading to the conclusion that the instability in the current phase will continue until there was a major change in the market.
The market has not created a solid background on the ascending line and that's a reason to concern because a fall in the next period will not stop in possible support levels. The expecting support levels before the parallel channel are at $56 and $49. Both of them were resistances that broke almost immediately in the ascending trend. We should also note that the moving averages have not to bend yet, showing that a fall won't happen in the next days.
Indicators
On the other hand, in the MACD index, the two lines seem to get closer to each other and it is possible to see a reverse in the market momentum. This fact will be the spark for the Litecoin market to reverse and start its bearish trend. The RSI index fell in the "safe" zone, indicating that the price might continue towards a bearish trend.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Bitcoin Cash gain more profits during the last days, make itself more separate from Litecoin, an asset that was strongly correlated with. The price lays at $310, forming a second wave of an uptrend in the market. The volumes are significantly lower than in previous days, showing that only a few investors have entered the market and lead the market to new highs.
The lack of massive investment might lead to extended volatility as there is not enough depth in the market for major moves. The independence of Bitcoin Cash regarding the second wave depicts more to Bitcoin's moves than any other coin. This means that we should look carefully at Bitcoin if we want to predict Bitcoin Cash's next moves.
Indicators
MACD index's lines are getting closer to each other, indicating that the second wave might not last for much longer. We should also note that the RSI index had returned in the "safe" zone but the line seems to ascend again, indicating that the continuation of the second wave will activate another "sell" signal.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.94 (+ 0.01), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.89 (+ 0.02), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.98 (- 0.01), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.98 ( 0 )
The correlations remained at the same level as the previous days, showing that the market status has not changed in a different direction. The overall state of the market remains green and we have to point out that the majority of the cryptocurrencies have stabilized their positions, showing that investors liquidate their positions and make correction moves in their portfolios. The next weeks during August will determine the base for the upcoming fall and what will happen in the crypto market.
