Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The price of BTC has settled, creating a stable trend between $10,200 and $10,400. The stability period usually appears after a fluttering period for the price, where a lot of turbulence and bearish mood fluctuates in the market. The heavy correction during the last week made investors more skeptical regarding Bitcoin's and cryptos' volatility but the most important fact that we should take into account is that the $10,000 support level didn't break.
The price stood before the $10,000 support level, showing that the market is not willing to return to previous conditions, indicating that investors are willing to hold their positions in Bitcoin, even if they had to sacrifice a certain amount of capital. On the other hand, we could say that the market has reached a long-term equilibrium for the last year, where the market has severe uptrends and downtrends. Every time during the last year, the price seems to correct back to $10,000 both after downtrends and uptrends. This could mean that the market dynamics are converging towards moving to a certain price level that will be a stable point where the price will "rest" before starting a new trend.
As we expect, the trading volume has lowered during the last few days, showing that investors have stopped massive liquidations and made corrective and preventive moves during this situation. We expect the markets to calm down for the next days before making any other major moves towards any direction. The technical indicators like moving averages are still on the bearish trend but this could be fixed if the price remains stable for the next week.
In the short-term diagram, we can observe that during the corrective period, there was a relatively small period (usually 5 days) where the price wasn't moving in a certain direction. This is a possible scenario for this moment, as the price isn't moving towards a certain direction and there is a possibility for correcting furthermore during the next days.
Indicators
MACD index starts to move upwards, laying at value = - 140, which shows slow progress in the trend reversal. Even though there is a lot to be done after this point and the index's increase above value = - 100, will be a positive signal. The RSI index lays at value = 40, showing that there is a slight possibility for a small downtrend before the trend reversal in the market.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
After hitting bottom during the last days at $340, Ethereum's price surges again at $370, creating a small profit margin for investors that decide to enter the market in the local bottom. During the previous month, a "head and shoulders" signal appeared in the market, making many investors believe that a downtrend was coming in the market. Ethereum market reacted to that signal and it rose more at $480, making technical analysis look bland. After that incident, the market crashes, and Ethereum dropped at $340, breaking the $380 support level.
The price returned almost to the same point but the market is very fragile at this moment as the trading volume is low and cannot support further market development. In the next days, we expect the price to lay around the short-term support level at $370 - $380 while it might correct again at lower levels, bringing more uncertainty in the market.
The moving averages start to move apart from each other, depicting better the current situation in the market. Even though the price remains at higher levels than the local bottom, there is a possibility for fake signals that will mislead the market and make Ethereum less appealing for investment.
Indicators
MACD index starts to move upwards, taking a step for crossing and move to the positive zone. The trend reversal might be possible in the MACD index but there could be not depicted in the price. The market momentum could be determined from the stability period and lead to wrong results. The RSI index moved to values between 45 and 50, showcasing possible stability over the next period at the same levels but it could be proved fragile due to the situation.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The negative downtrend was halted in the $0.24 support level, a support level never shown before in the diagram, indicating that Ripple was affected by the general feeling in the market and stop the downtrend, without any technical indicator to predict that. This incident makes many analysts believe that there should look for many more indicators outside of the Ripple market to predict the next move and what will happen next in the market.
The diagram could follow a "head and shoulders" signal, indicating a potential downtrend in the market. This signal, even if it was not clear, proved wrong and the price went down on the same day as other cryptocurrencies. The trading volume has lowered since the bust, indicating a possible standing position for the price while the moving averages are way apart from crossing each other.
Indicators
MACD index has already tried to move upwards but the market is moving in a different direction from the wanting one. On the other hand, the RSI index climbed to values above 40, showing that backtrack is possible in the next days.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The price dropping stops at $48, the last short-term support level in the market before the two major support levels at $46 and $40 respectively. The major correction from $62 was something to expect as the market was considered "overvalued" from many analysts. Especially for Litecoin, whose fundamental elements are non-existent, the market momentum plays the most important role in the price formation.
The current support level would possibly hold for the next period as the trading volume seems to lower and create prospects for more stability in the market. The moving averages show that the bearish trend will continue to exist in the market and press the price to lower levels, especially if there is no "fuel" in the market from new investors. A problem that the crypto market might face shortly is that the price has not fallen enough to attract new investors to enter the market, seeing a new opportunity on that.
This fact might delay the market development and make the adoption rate or portfolio inclusion a little bit harder than in previous times, where the correction was much more impactful.
Indicators
MACD index seems to stabilize in the negative zone, indicating that the market is slowly moving towards an equilibrium state. The stability period will be determined from the crypto market and its momentum. The RSI index moved near value = 40, indicating possible stability in the next days, without excluding the possibility for further downtrend.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The long-term support level seems to work for Bitcoin Cash, as the price drop stopped at $225. This particular stop shows that the market has depth at this point, holding positions that investors rely on for the future. The price, after several ups and downs, fell on the long-term support levels, showing weakness for stopping the price drop in the short-term support levels.
This means that Bitcoin Cash has no longer a visible support level in the near past that could hold a possible downtrend. Even if there is no downtrend, the cycle for Bitcoin Cash would be much larger and there would be a need for more "fuel" to achieve better returns in the future.
Indicators
MACD index has dropped severely in the negative zone, creating a bearish momentum in the market, helping investors to define if the bottom has been reached. The RSI index remained near value = 35, indicating that a slight move downwards will activate a "buy" signal.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.80 (+ 0.03), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.98 ( 0 ), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.98 ( 0 ), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.99 (+ 0.01)
The correlations continue to remain at high levels, showing that the market is integrating during the last days, raising the potential for future predictability and smoother transitions from one status to another. As Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash were moving towards a complete correlation with Bitcoin, Ethereum is still rising, showing that the market stability affects every coin in the market. This effect has delayed any price actions in the market that will give the needed momentum for the cryptocurrencies to establish a new trend. The trendsetting will possibly be done from the market leader, Bitcoin and the rest cryptos will follow accordingly. This will be revealed in the next period that will be shaped by the market dynamics and the fundamental elements for any asset.
