The recent upward breakout shows good resilience on the part of the bulls. This event left the bears in a bit of a frenzy that resulted in much liquidation in shorts, about $150 million, according to Moskovski Capital. The funding rate falling below neutral implies that there are still shorts in the system that need to be squeezed out. According to the analysts at JP Morgan on 21st April, the worst liquidation could be over, and liquidity in the market is likely to recover quickly after the BTC/USD pair’s recent sell-offs.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin dipped below $50,000 on 25th April, and the RSI dipped close to the oversold line, almost touching 30 before making a rebound at 31 and having the candlestick along with it, in line with our analysis on the indicators two days prior. The bears could not sustain the dip strongly enough to withstand the push from buyers who continued to accumulate on the dip.
The price touched above $55,000 on the 27th and is still facing resistance around the 50-day average. Although the last 24 hours of trading haven’t given as much progress as the previous one, the bulls still look to be doing a great job at the resistance level and keeping the 20-day average on a flat line from its downward slope. The sellers are not giving up their position easily and are expected to be more aggressive around both moving averages.
If the bears should win at the 50-day moving average, then a downward correction resumes, which could go all the way down to $46,000 and possibly $43,000 if they win resistance again. However, if the bulls should hold this position around the 50-day average long enough to turn it to support, then prices could move up to the 20-day average and open a window to rally up to $61,825 and beyond.
Indicators
MACD is negative but slowly receding to show that the bulls are gaining back the upper hand in this tussle. RSI shows that the BTC/USD pair has gone from being oversold to having a healthy trade index and heading towards 50.
Ethereum/ US Dollar
On 25th April, the ETH/USD pair rebounded from $2,157 around the 20-day moving average ($2,226), where it took off again to attain a new ATH ($2,709) a few hours ago, as predicted on our last analysis news. The new ATH has been met with equal resistance and is currently fluctuating around $2,625 to see if it can resume an upward journey very soon.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The breakout is likely to favor the bulls owing to the momentum outburst and getting to two All-Time Highs within two weeks. If the bulls win it at the resistance, then the pair’s uptrend may go above $3,000. With the moving averages facing a North-eastern direction and the RSI looking healthy at 65.34, the bulls look very much at an advantage over the bears. Any resistance at this level won’t pose much of a threat till a new ATH.
However, suppose the pair is unable to take full advantage of the bullish support and turn southbound. In that case, the bears will most likely do the honors of pulling the price down to the range of its 20-day moving average, where it will encounter stiff resistance, but if the resistance is overcome, then the bears will be happy to keep selling and go all the way down below $2,050. Failure to spring back up from this point will only spell more doom, but if the bulls do a good job there, they may be able to keep the pair range-bound, between 2,050 and the 20-day moving average, for a few days.
Indicators
MACD has climbed back up into the positive area over the past two days and is growing stronger, meaning that the bulls are back on top, hence the new ATH. The RSI is at 65.34 and heading back down into the “healthy area” after reaching near the over-buying zone.
Ripple/ US Dollar
On 26th April, the XRP/USD pair bounced off from lows of $0.94, just below the 20-day moving average at $1.25. The pair was able to beat the resistance and turn an upward trend, taking the direction on the 20-day moving average along. Currently hanging around $1.37, the pair is attempting to start another rally, and this is looking very likely as they have been able to push prices above the 20-day moving average.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Currently trading at $1.37 at the time of writing, the pair has a better chance of moving higher to $1.50. The longer they can sustain the price levels above the 20-day moving average, the more this projection gets closer to being accurate.
The bears will surely try to fight this trend, but if the bulls stay strong, the most the bears can do is stall them. If they continue this trend and go past resistance around $1.75, this will suggest that traders are not keen on closing their positions yet, and the pair could rally to levels around $1.90 if they maintain their positions.
Failure to maintain the trend will most likely bring the pair below the 20-day moving average and have the bears eyeing below the 50-day average ($1.01) around $0.85.
Indicators
RSI is at 57, which is healthy enough, coming from a level almost below 40 three days ago. The curve, however, still indicated some bears selling. MACD is in the negative area but receding rapidly to indicate that the bears are doing a good job buying on the dip.
Litecoin/ US Dollar
Currently trading at $256.46, the LTC/USD pair has successfully broken above its 20-day moving average ($248.56), where the bulls were unable to contain the trend for more than 48-hours after it bounced off from below the 50-day moving average ($229.22).
The bullish pair was met with resistance after going above $265 but is looking very likely to come out on top provided they continue with pressure just as they already proved they could. This could put the pair on its journey back above $300.
LTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to mount resistance before reaching $300, around $289. Suppose the bulls can’t prove themselves yet again. In that case, the bulls may succeed in going below the 20-day moving average and eventually the 50-day moving average if they can throw the traders into a panic-selling frenzy. However, continuing with a forward momentum will get the prices past their 52-high of $335 from where it could be on a journey to former ATH and possibly a new high.
Indicators
RSI reading is at 54, which is a positive step from its position three days ago at 43. It indicates that the trade activities are quite balanced, reflecting on the price chart. MACD is moving away from the deep red zone and heading towards a more bearish pattern.
Bitcoin Cash/ US Dollar
The BCH/USD pair has successfully risen above the 20-day moving average ($817.87) after bouncing off from below it, at $716. The bearish sellers were unable to resist buyers on the dip and lost the resistance at the 20-day moving average on 26th April. The bears could not take advantage of the dip on 24th April that almost reached the 50-day moving average ($710), but the buyers were swift to turn this around and have been accumulating pretty well so far and even going all the way up to $930.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The pair is currently trading at $893.79 at the time of writing this article. If the bulls can sustain the trend above this area long enough, then we may witness it jump all the way up to $1000 before meeting further resistance from the bears.
Breaking this second resistance from the bears will see the bulls taking the price close to its 52-week high above $1,200. However, a downward turn will likely take the pair down to its 50-day moving average as bearish traders may be convinced to close their positions in great numbers.
Indicators
The RSI has taken a flatter position within the past24 hours, which suggests that buying has slowed down, but this is not having any adverse effect on the price so far. Currently, at 58.94, the balance can be considered neutral. MACD for this pair is also retreating from the red zone to show that the bulls are trying to stage a comeback, but will it turn out successful?
Correlation
*Bracketed is 7-days difference.
- BTC/ETH: 0.85 (-0.02)
- BTC/XRP: 0.84 (+0.06)
- BTC/LTC: 0.81 (-0.01)
- BTC/BCH: 0.79 (-0.08)
As the trends change directions, so does the correlation fluctuate. The past seven days have turned into negative differences except for the BTC/XRP pair which stayed positive. This doesn’t tell the full story however, as the ETH/USD pair still leads the pack at the biggest gainer within the same timeframe. All five assets have been bullish for a few days, but currently delaying at resistance levels which favour them all the same.
A simultaneous upward break from resistance could push the prices on these 5 assets up to new resistance points or even new ATH’s for some. Buyers on the BCH/USD pair will be glad if that happened sooner. However, the assets are mostly pegged at crucial resistance levels that might determine their movement over the next 4 to 5 days.
Key Notes
- Bitcoin is picking up the pace and trying to break out from resistance around its 50-day moving average
- Ethereum has touched a new ATH around $710 but is still trying to fight off stiff resistance.
- Ripple and Ethereum still seem to be experiencing some common events after both trends bounced-off their 50-day moving average and over their 20-day EMA
- Bears on Bitcoin Cash couldn’t keep the trend below its 20-day EMA for long. At $893.79, the asset seems likely to continue an upward trend.
