Senator Warren pounces on popular fear about Bitcoin & sanctions + With BTC nearing $40K, analysts warn a return to prior lows is imminent

News • 2022/03/11 • by
remitano
  • US Senator Elizabeth Warren is developing legislation to restrict the use of cryptocurrencies to avoid economic consequences.
  • Experts say BTC must retake the two crucial bull market exponential moving averages (EMAs) to confirm bullish momentum."

Warren's new anti-crypto stance coincides with US government's push to prevent Russia from using crypto to avoid economic sanctions

NBC News reported on Tuesday that Warren's draft crypto bill would require local crypto exchanges to submit the Treasury Department "full records" of customers' identities and transactions to private crypto wallets.

To make firms choose between doing business in the US or with sanctioned persons and groups, the bill imposes secondary penalties on foreign bitcoin exchanges, as well.

Warren's measure is reportedly being considered by the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

Last week, Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine's deputy minister for digital transformation, pleaded with cryptocurrency exchanges to exclude Russian consumers. Some of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges have said that they would not impose a blanket ban but instead concentrate on maintaining compliance with US penalties.

Senator Warren has long criticized it. Then in 2021, she introduced legislation to examine crypto's role in ransomware and slammed the Ethereum network for its excessive costs during a committee hearing. So it's no wonder that she's seized the opportunity to argue for stricter limits.

Senator Warren said earlier today on Twitter that her bill will "ensure crypto is not used to defy our economic sanctions" by Putin and his cronies.

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However, experts such as Jake Chervinsky, head of policy at crypto policy advocate the Blockchain Association, claim Russia "cannot and will not use crypto to avoid sanctions."

Chervinsky highlighted that the Russian state's monetary needs outstripped the capacity of crypto markets and that there was a shortage of Russian crypto infrastructure to meet demand. But he didn't address the problem of Russians using crypto to avoid sanctions.

A bipartisan group of House members and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged for legislative action on crypto in connection with Russia less than a week ago.

To prevent "unbacked cryptocurrencies from being exploited as a vehicle for terrorist financing and general criminal behaviour, tax fraud, and the like," Powell said Russia's situation highlights the necessity for industry-wide regulation.

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Earlier this week, FinCEN issued an alert advising "all financial institutions to be vigilant" against Russian efforts to evade US sanctions.

Among the ways cited were using shell firms to perform international wire transfers, using third parties to disguise identification, and using freshly formed accounts to send or receive monies from a prohibited institution. The FinCEN notice states:

According to the FDIC, "all financial institutions must detect and quickly report suspicious behavior linked with possible sanctions evasion, and perform adequate risk-based customer due diligence, or enhanced Due Diligence if necessary."

Bitcoin price fluctuations and where to look for a bullish or bearish breakthrough

Trader and Twitter user 'Rekt Capital' posted the chart below, stating that "BTC is now consolidating between the green upper low support and the blue 50-week EMA resistance."

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Price compression is happening due to greater lows and lower highs, says Rekt Capital.

Rekt Capital alluded to the green and blue exponential moving average (EMA) lines as major resistance marks during the previous two weeks to reclaim the bullish narrative.

Rekt Capital claims

"BTC must retake the two crucial bull market exponential moving averages (EMAs) to confirm bullish momentum."

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In its latest weekly review, Stack Funds said that "Bitcoin has whipsawed in recent weeks, trading within the $35,000-$45,000 region with no substantial directional impulse intact."

Analysts at Stack Funds see no relief in the near future as the Ukraine crisis and persistent inflation remain major challenges.

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The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that measures daily gains and losses, shows traders' aversion to increasing market exposure.

Long-term BTC holder SOPR is "going near its threshold value of 1.0," Stack Funds said.

The long-term holding SOPR has been declining since Bitcoin peaked in November 2021, and is now trading "around the 1.5 handle level," the analysis shows.

When the SOPR trended and traded below 1.0 in mid-2018 and late 2019, "Bitcoin drifted laterally and fell further both times," according to the graphic.

Stack Funds says

"We expect sideways trading and maybe a short-term price decline until we witness a positive market trigger or a reversal of the SOPR signal."
However, on-chain Bitcoin price research is not all doom and gloom. The number of Bitcoin accumulation addresses has risen dramatically in the last month, according to crypto specialist and Twitter user 'Plan C.'

The total number of unique BTC accumulation addresses. Addresses that have received at least two non-dust transactions but have never spent BTC are considered accumulation addresses.

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Regarding Bitcoin's near-term prospects, market expert and Cointelegraph contributor Michal van de Poppe feels "the chances of taking these lows are very considerable."

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"The current spike in BTC came out of nowhere and lasted less than an hour without any follow-through," said ExoAlpha managing partner and chief investment officer David Lifchitz.

Lifchitz claims

"BTC remains between $33,000 and $45,000." A break above $45,000 toward $50,000 is unlikely in the next 48 hours, therefore BTC is likely to remain in the area."
Bitcoin has a market valuation of $1.744 trillion, with a 42.6 percent share.

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