BTC bulls still trying to regain control of the trends

Traditionally, the practice of crypto traders is to “buy on the dip” in times like this and if enough buyers can join in then they have a good chance of profiting when the positions spike back up from low positions probably caused by panic-selling. Any novice trader acting alone will be clouded with the fear of missing out (FOMO) and continue to buy and hold as it dips instead of analyzing the movement closely. An experienced trader will rather watch the averages and how the trend moves accordingly before taking a position.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

On Sunday, the 18th of April, the BTC/USD pair bounced off from levels below its 50-day average ($56,400+) after taking traders on a swoon to a new ATH. The stay above 65,000 was short-lived, most likely due to the high amount of traders cashing-in their position to take profit early. However, since the prices haven’t been able to remain above 56,000 it means that there are more traders waiting than the amount of traders buying the dip.

Currently, The 20-day average is turning down and RSI is well into the negative with the MACD almost in the 30’s. If the bears can keep the value at these levels for longer than a few days then the BTC/USD pair will be testing lower positions soon enough. It could possibly get to the $50,000 range and if it can resist there is hope that this can turn to a support level for it and the bulls regain control. However, if it dips below this level then early bulls that bought the dip from Sunday will be forced to sell or risk a bigger loss as prices may continue to drop below $45,000.

All-Time highs are usually hard to override as smoothly as Bitcoin did this year, and a slight dip is understandable. Moving back above the 20-day moving average from its current level will be a positive sign but the longer it waits the less likely it may be.

Indicators

MACD has been negative since Sunday and has been getting stronger in the area. Suggesting that the bears are indeed getting stronger than the responding bulls.
RSI is at 40.40 and heading towards the 30’s meaning that more selling than buying is going on. A rebound on the value dip will cause a change in direction.

Ethereum/ US Dollar

Ethereum is currently trading at $2,338 at the time of writing this after dropping a few from its recently attained ATH of $2,544 just the same as BTC/USD. The ETH/USD pair plunged below $2,000 and very close to its 50-day moving average but was quickly corrected back up above the 20-day moving average by the early bulls buying the dip rapidly.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rebound trend is currently fluctuating at resistance and has gone up almost 10% in 24hours. However, the final direction is very much in the balance but favoursing the bears. If they successfully reverse this rebound and push the value below its 20-day moving average again then there is a bigger possibility of going below its 50-day average to around $1,500 due to mass panic-selling. This may very well be the case as the bulls aren’t showing enough strength, yet.

If the opposite is the case, then it signifies that buyers are buying the dip strongly and they may attract more bulls. This could see the ETH/USD pair back to its former heights and looking for a new ATH. Where the resistance is likely to break-out from is still in the balance and either way it goes the movement will most likely stretch for a while.

Indicators

RSI is at 60.28 which suggests healthy buying and coming up from a dip below 55, this suggests that a good number of traders are buying the deep but are they enough to affect the value of Ethereum?
MACD reading is currently at -5.34 after spending up to 20 days in the green area until April 18th. This means that the bears are trying hard to stage a comeback, but the trend isn’t progressive and so there is hope for the bulls.

Ripple/ US Dollar

The XRP/USD pair wasn’t spared by the surge on April 18th that saw major coins go below their 20-day moving averages. The pair currently trading at $1.35 was knocked down to $1.12 on the 18th, after getting to $1.96 roughly four days prior, and threatening to reach $2. The pair was quick to respond to buyers who started buying the dip and bounce back up but not too far-off.

The new level is showing some resistance, adding only 2% in the last 24 hours and if the trend should break-out in the southern direction again then it means that buyers are rethinking their positions and prices could drop further. If the momentum from the past week can be rekindled then predictions of $2.5 may be in order but if it should continue below the 20-day moving average then more selling is coming.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

XRP has always shown a good correlation to BTC even though the percentage in price movement has been very different. The bulls have shown some resilience on the XRP/USD pair by remaining above the two Moving Averages, but can XRP continue its upward movement?

Indicators

MACD indicator is in the negative area (-0.02) after making a progressive decline and then taking a sharp turn on April 19th. RSI is at 57.17 which is healthy but signifies a massive decline in buyers judging from previous heights of 85.14 where it was exactly a week ago. These indications point toward the fact that buying is on the decline and if it continues then heavy fluctuations should follow.

Litecoin/ US Dollar

Litecoin holders have had a better 24hours than the last seven days. The LTC/USD pair also experienced a dip below its 20-day moving average ($249.27) and went as low as $233.85 before bouncing back to an upward trend. Currently trading at $272.35, the pair is still struggling to catch up to its former height of $335.35 where it stumbled from, and possibly reach a new ATH above $360.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The current hesitation to break into $280 once more is an indication that although the buyers were able to turn the direction and stall the bearish by “buying the dip”, not all hands are on deck so the bears still have a slim chance at taking their rally a bit further. If this happens it can instigate more selling than buying for the time-being and this can push price correction below the 50-day moving average ($225).

However, the rebound from $233 is a flicker of hope that will be short lived if the bulls can’t maintain momentum or more bears decide to sell. In that case, surpassing its Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8%) will mean that the bulls are persistent and the uptrend could as well resume above $300.

Indicators

MACD reading turned negative today (-0.10) after staying in the green area so far this month. This shows a weak bearish overtake, but still with a lot of bullish tendencies.
RSI is at 59.68 after a steep decline from April 17th to 18th. This means that a healthy amount of traders are still buying, and the slight increase from 56.24 is a confirmation.

Bitcoin Cash/ US Dollar

The BCH/USD pair is currently trading at $961 after falling from above $1,200, and going as low as $820 following the massive crypto market corrections that happened on Sunday. Despite the dip, buyers retained positions and this is evident in the way trends are reversing. The big question now is; can the bulls hold on just long enough to continue their rally? Although this could happen, it is a more unlikely scenario because sooner or later the prices will naturally correct itself to move against “get-rich-quick” traders.

BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Like the other affected altcoins, BCH buyers are trying to affect a change in the downtrend and hold the resistance long enough to turn it to support, albeit a lot of selling is going on to prevent this. This hesitation will last a few days owing to the rapid fluctuations going on with crypto at the moment and whichever side that wins will take trends on a short or long rally depending on the reaction of traders.

The bulls have been able to stay above both Moving Average’s but the bears are obviously pressing on and if they can bring the price lower than the 20-day average then there’s no telling how far they will go since more people will start selling at this point. If the bulls retain their position on top then we could see the pair going back up to previous levels within $1,200 and with a support break-out, possibly above $1,500.

Indicators

MACD is still positive after a slight drag starting on April 18th. This implies that the bulls are still in control, and if they hold on to their spot the uptrend vision is still very possible. RSI trend is healthy at 66.14 after falling from an “over-buying” spot at 85. Everything implies that the bulls are still ahead.

Correlations

• BTC/ETH: 0.83 (-0.02)
• BTC/XRP: 0.63 (-0.13)
• BTC/LTC: 0.73 (0.07)
• BTC/BCH: 0.69 (0.06)

*Bracketed is the 7-day difference.

The crypto market is having a lot of volatility this period and from the looks of it, the bears are trying to take back the reins after being relegated for over a month. The bears are fighting the corrections but nothing will change if there are not enough buyers to back it up. Bitcoin is probably still leading the direction as it took many altcoins to mimic its movement below their Moving Average. Coins like BCH are still having a great week (+20%), although looking to make it greater. BCH is also the only coin out of the 5 that didn’t touch any of its Moving Averages although that could change. XRP is having one of the worst weeks with -23% in 7days.

Key Notes For Today

• Bitcoin has lost 12.6% in 7days and is currently at $55,530
• Ethereum fell from its new ATH and is trying to climb back at $2,300+
• Ripple earlier dropped further down to $1.19 and is currently at $1.35
• Litecoin is struggling at $272.35 after dropping a chunk of its gained height.
• Bitcoin Cash dropped a lot of value but made enough profit in the past 2weeks to keep early buyers in the green.