During the weekend, we saw different altcoins creating over-returns against Bitcoin, indicating that we've entered a new alt-season, fueled by Bitcoin's profits. The crypto market follows two different patterns in terms of profitability and direction. The first scenario is the "same direction" where Bitcoin sets the major trend in the market (positive or negative) and the rest market follows on. The second scenario is the "alt-season" where altcoins outperform Bitcoin and separate themselves from the major trend in the market.
We need to indicate also that profits from the Bitcoin market tend to invest back in the altcoin market and the opposite. We believe that the recent Bitcoin boom was fueled from profits from the mini alt-season, where investors moved their capital from altcoins back to the Bitcoin market, hoping for more safety and better returns in the long-term.
Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Bitcoin continues to move positively during the weekend, without making any major move that could shake the market. The trend line has an upward direction, showing that the market has not abandoned the overall direction and tries to build a new cycle, by losing as little as it can through the reduced everyday returns. After the initial boom, the market returns have been normalized, creating a stability period that will lead to the next cycle for the market.
The volume has decreased to levels, previously shown during the stability period, making evident that the momentum has been lost in the market and we might observe a small drop in the market until there was another event that will spark a new cycle for the market. The 200-day average has also climbed towards the 50-day average, showing that a reverse "Golden Cross" might happen during the next weeks if the price remains at the same levels. We should point out that profits from the alt-season might be transferred in the Bitcoin market over time, creating a new boom for it.
In the short-term diagram, we can observe that Bitcoin has passed the previous period regarding its prices and it has entered a new price level above $11,000. This means that newly coming investors have not experienced yet a severe drop in the price that will make them liquidate any short-term position and look for more hedging in different positions.
Indicators
MACD index remained on the negative side at a steady rate, showing that the market has lost the previous momentum and it had moved in a stability mode. The RSI index is moving in a dangerous area, where there is evidence for moving in either direction according to other factors. The slow uptrend is another factor that affects the technical indicators and produces a variety of signals regarding the next move that can't be trusted always.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
As we told in previous articles, Ethereum took a major leap during the previous days from $400 to $440, creating a 10 % profit margin just overnight. The momentum didn't continue during the weekend and the price remained at the same levels, without any major move to happen. The stability around $430 - $440 shows that Ethereum could make the difference in the crypto world, by climbing step by step the price ladder and creating constant returns for its investors.
The volume seems increased during the boost, showing that the market has developed enough strength and depth to keep this position for as long as possible. The market depth prevents the market to crash when there are multiple liquidations at the same time while it develops a safety net for that price level. The moving averages are moving at a parallel move, without make a cross evident in the near future. We believe that Ethereum will continue to surprise and move in non-evident ways, making it harder to predict than ever before.
Indicators
MACD continues to remain in a positive field, even if the momentum slows down and a possible drop could be near. The index is near zero, indicating that a new trend might start from this point that will determine the next period. As for the RSI index, it returned on the "safe" area, below value = 70, showing that the uptrend has come to an end and it is possible for some investors to liquidate their positions, making the price drop.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Ripple's price seems to have another small boost during the last days, a signal that shows that there is a possibility for a second alt-season during the summer. The price made a local low at $0.28 and then it jumped back to $0.30, creating an 8 % profit margin for day-traders. This jump made the market to continue growing during the weekend and return to the previous position, before the price bending.
The volume seems to increase during the last days, showing that many investors have moved their capitals from other coins to Ripple and other currencies like Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. The moving averages are moving towards a reverse "Golden Cross" that might happen in the next days. The cross will indicate a negative signal for the market but we should notice that the 50-day is not moving downwards (no evidence of negative momentum) and the 200-day is climbing, indicating that it could be a fake signal.
Indicators
MACD index is on the negative side, showing that the market momentum still remains below zero and could affect the market even more by pressing the price towards a downward direction. The RSI index is still moving at the "safe" zone but a small uptrend will activate another "sell" signal that will make the market consider twice before making a new decision.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Litecoin was definitely the weekend winner as its price climbed almost 15 % during those days, creating a new local high. After breaking the first triangle at $57, the price dropped at $54, marking a local bottom. This bottom was an unexpecting one as there was no previous resistance or support level at this point that indicates a price stop. From this point and on, Litecoin's price starts to climb every day, reaching $64, a new local high for the market.
The volume was increased during the boom, showing that investors were interested in the case and decide to invest more on the coin, creating the new bullish trend in the market. Even if the moving averages were about to cross each other, the sudden boost makes them move in parallel ways and avoid cross that might send fake signals to investors.
Indicators
The boost during the weekend changes the momentum in the market and this becomes evident in the MACD index that turns positive after some days in the negative zone. The RSI index starts to climb again towards the "overbought" area but there is still room for an uptrend as its value remains below 70.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
As we have mentioned in previous articles, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin have common routes in the entire market spectrum during the last year. Bitcoin Cash's price reached $320 at its peak and after that, it dropped at $280. During the weekend, its price climbed to $310, showing that there is still fuel in the market for an uptrend. Even if there was no local high at this point, we should take into account that the volume was large enough to make the price to make a major move towards the upward direction.
The moving averages crossed, creating a reverse "Golden Cross", showing that the market is entering a new phase, the bearish one. The bearish signal could be overcome if the entire market moved towards another direction. Then, Bitcoin Cash will move from this signal and create a route according to the market.
Indicators
The boost didn't make the MACD index move to the positive area and it remained on the same page. This means that there is a need for more uptrend if the momentum needs to change for creating a new trend in the market. The RSI index is still in the "no direction" area, indicating that a major move will not appear in the near future.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.78 (- 0.02), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.58 (- 0.19), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.54 (- 0.24), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.66 (- 0.17)
During the weekend, the correlations dropped, even more, creating a diversified environment in the crypto market and enabling investors to take the opportunities that rise into it. Ethereum continues to have the highest correlation with Bitcoin as the price rally halts during the weekend. On the other hand, the price boosts for Ripple, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash drop the correlations between them and Bitcoin, showing that a new alt-season might begin in the upcoming days. Many analysts have claimed that this move was against the odds for the above cryptos and created a new standard for the market's next moves.
