Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Bitcoin's price remained stable over the day, showing a little setback from the previous parallel channel, with some evidence on returning back on it. The return on the previous parallel channel will prove the stability of the asset regarding its price and the reduced volatility shown in the previous period. The price compressed around $9,100 during the previous week, giving us a hint that a more sharp move will occur during next week.
The sharpness of the move will be determined from the daily volume and investors' expectations about prices' new high levels after the pandemic lockdown. Many crypto exchanges have posted that they had increased volumes during and after the pandemic, showing that new investors are entering the market, causing the price to surge from $4,000 to $10,000. The new investors give a huge boost in the price while the older investors had a chance to liquidate their profits and sustain any positions they have in Bitcoin.
The interaction between bullish and bearish investors is continuous, producing the results depicted in the market. In Bitcoin's case, we can observe that larger volumes are formed when one group has a stronger expectation for its case. During the last examined period, we saw that bullish investors had stronger expectations about price surge, a fact that was proved right during the pandemic months.
In the short-term diagram, we can observe a slightly bearish trend, established over the last two weeks. The bearish trend could depict an expectation for a "fair price" around $10,000. These facts show that investors expect stability around $10,000, which is considered as a long-term goal for volatility reduction and extensive adaptability. The "fair price" scenario is widely covered in the fundamental analysis theories and it is progressively adopted from many trading agents.
Indicators
MACD index remained in the negative zone, without any significant changes in the momentum strategies, which continued to form a bearish trend according to that. In parallel, the RSI index is moving around value = 45, which is a bearish signal as it depicts the price's inability to create any signal for buy.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Ethereum's price returned in the previous, new support level at $225. The new support level was formed during the last two weeks, establishing a parallel trend over them. The parallel trend is quite common in the crypto markets as there are no fundamental changes that can affect the asset's price at a significant level. In Ethereum's case, the correlation between the fundamental and technical signals is considered heavy as, during past times, fundamental changes like hard forks affected the price heavily, independently from the crypto market correlations.
The moving averages' gap was widened during the previous days, showing that a "Golden Cross" seems quite impossible at this moment. We expect a calm weekend when no major surprises might happen overnight. This prediction is supported by the observed volumes which seem rather low, comparing to the previous volumes. The previous bullish trend was fueled from the crypto "fever" in the entire market while the second, smaller bullish trend was independent of the market trend, giving Ethereum a chance to separate from the other cryptocurrencies.
Indicators
MACD index seems to be at a crucial point as the first line was negative and the second line is positive. The overall index is negative, showing a bearish perspective in the market while the RSI index is moving towards value = 50 and below, showing that there is more margin for a further downtrend in the market.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The price in the Ripple market compressed around $0.1780, a price has seen around early-April in the same market. The price compression predicts a future sharp drop or surge that will occur during the next days. The price is moving between the lower boundary of the parallel, descending channel, and the parabola formed from the start of the examined period. The price is heavily correlated with the entire crypto market, showing the same stability as other major altcoins.
The moving averages' gap has remained the same, without any significant change for bullish or bearish signals. No technical signals appeared in the market, showing that the investors' expectations are trying to stay stable during this period. Ripple seems not to be affected by severe announcements for partnerships or collaborations in the market. The correlation between announcements and the price moves is rather weak, showing that the market is not efficient without any signals for other correlations. We expect a weak, bearish trend to be established in the next period until other technical indexes give buy signals.
Indicators
MACD index is in a crucial phase as the two lines are moving closer to each other, showing that there is a possibility for a trend reversal in the near future. In parallel, the RSI index is moving in the "oversold" area, showing that a small drop in the price will create a trend reversal. Both indexes are moving towards the same direction, giving a bold prediction about Ripple's future. In the meantime, we should be aware of any potential move that may surprise us in the market.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Like the other cryptocurrencies, Litecoin didn't receive any major change from the market, remaining stable during the day. The price remained around $41, the lower boundary of the parallel channel, served as the long-term support level during the examined period. The price is compressing for another time, showing that the price might move in the next days, either back to the parallel channel or breaking the support level, creating a new bearish trend.
The moving averages' gap seems to widen even more, showing that a "Golden Cross" signal is unlikely to appear. The volume is dropping in the last months, creating even fewer possibilities for an uptrend and a positive trend establishment. The parallel movement of the Litecoin market might indicate that Litecoin is following other cryptos' route in the past periods, without to separate itself through fundamental issues. We should highlight at this point that no fundamental changes in Litecoin will happen in the future as the core developing team has abandoned the project for taking other projects into consideration.
Indicators
In the MACD index, the difference between the two lines seems to be more close, indicating a potential reversal in the market momentum. The price is dropping the last two months, combining that the momentum might reverse due to the long negative period. The RSI index shows that there is a possibility for a further downturn as the oversold area has another 10 points for being hit. As we told before, the long negative period is always followed from a heavy or weak reverse, long waited from many investors.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Along with the two above cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Cash moved in the lower boundary of the parallel channel, served as the long-term support level in the market. The price compression has more days to happen, indicating that there would be more stability in the next days. The volume is dropping during the last months, showing that a sudden entrance in the market will shake up the price.
The moving averages' gap is widening, showing that a "Golden Cross" signal is quite impossible to appear. Bitcoin Cash's compression appeared several times during the last months while the majority of investors wait for another major trend to establish in the market in order to place their positions. The parallel channel between $220 and $260 is the parallel channel that will break in either direction and the new trend will be shown in the future for Bitcoin Cash.
We should take into consideration in Bitcoin Cash's case that many fundamental changes might happen that will affect the price negatively or positively.
Indicators
MACD index is moving even more close to each other, indicating a reversal in the trend. In the previous days, the RSI index got almost in the oversold area, without hitting it. The move was considered false as the bearish trend continued to exist. That's why we should be extremely accurate with signals in technical analysis.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.90 (- 0.02), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.84 ( 0 ), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.90 ( 0.03), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.91 (- 0.01)
The correlations between the major altcoins and Bitcoin remained high without any significant change from the last time. The most uncorrelated asset seems to be Ripple as the changes between its prices moved in penny cents, creating larger returns for investors who may think that investing in Ripple is similar to investing in penny stocks. Penny stocks trading is quite popular in individual trading as it creates opportunities for larger returns due to the small price the stock has. The same philosophy could apply to several other cryptocurrencies like Ripple.
