Bitcoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
After hitting the first bullish point at $11,000, the price of Bitcoin was corrected back to $10,400. This correction is normal during a sustainable bullish period and we have to point out that the 2020 bullish period from March to May had several stops and halts before reaching a parallel channel around $10,000 and below it. The parallel channel between $8,600 and $10,000 broke after 2 -3 months of ups and downs, creating compression in the market that was released, hitting the $11,000 point and continue for higher levels.
In the weekend's article, we referred to the bearish scenario, which is a possibility at this point after the correction. The bearish scenario implements the continuation of the stability period where the price is constantly moving between $10,200 and $10,500. The compression might lead to the continuation of the bullish market trend but there is still time to observe it. At this point, there again two scenarios to follow:
The first scenario will be the rebound again at $11,000 and the bullish period will continue. This should be supported with major volumes on the trading floor, which is not so evident during the last days. The second scenario will the severe fall below the $10,000 support level, which will have consequential effects in the market and will bring the market to a different status. Given the market analysis and previous trading features, we expect the price to stabilize around $10,500 and wait for the investors to decide if it's a good time to liquidate or increase their positions on the market.
In the short-term diagram, we can see that the "Golden Cross" signal was proved wrong the next day after happening but we should take a closer look at the market dynamics that could enforce us to change our mind in the next days. Even if "Golden Cross" is a strong "buy" signal in the stock markets, it should be supported with other critical features like increased trading volume, which didn't happen yesterday.
Indicators
MACD index remained on the positive side, showing that profits from the short bullish run didn't disappear at all but it more like a liquidation "trap" that many investors panicked or fell short of, and sell a part of their portfolio. On the other hand, the RSI index moved to values between 45 and 40, which mostly predict a negative turn on the events.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Price Analysis
The mid-term support/resistance level around $370 broke and the price fell in the next support level at $340, which was met before in the first days of September during the crypto market's major correction. This support level is crucial for the Ethereum market as if it broke, the next strong support level lays at $240.
This means that a continuation of the bearish trend will make Ethereum really weak and support levels in the medium of the fall might be as strong as the previous ones. The only weak support level in the medium is the $320 point but it hadn't proved that it could hold any downtrend.
The trading volume was increased during the liquidation day while the majority of the previous days were pretty low regarding that. The "Golden Cross" signal was avoided this time, showing that investors corrected their preferences after the Bitcoin's "Golden Cross" and the price fall. Another "Golden Cross" in the Ethereum market might confuse investors even more and make investors' trust in technical signals even smaller for the next cases.
Indicators
MACD index moved to negative levels, indicating a reverse in the market momentum and predicting even worse days for Ethereum. Ethereum didn't reach Bitcoin's level during the last bullish run and this is why the fall was much more severe during yesterday. On the other hand, the RSI index moved to values between 45 and 40, which mostly predict a negative turn on the events.
Ripple / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Another coin that was corrected yesterday was Ripple. The price dropped around $0.02, reaching $0.23. The slow and steady growth at $0.25 disappeared from the market, making investors lose faith in the coin. The bearish scenario for Ripple's case is the $0.20 point and support level. If this point won't be reached in the next days, there are hopes for Ripple to establish new trends that will drive the price to higher levels.
We expect that the price might get a little lower before starting to rise again. The trading volume spiked during the liquidation day but in general remains low enough for stability prediction. The "Golden Cross" signal was avoided this time also, like in Ethereum's case, but a single move could overthrow this statement and make things more complicated than before. In any case, Ripple has not reached its worst situation yet and we believe that if there is another bullish signal in the market, Ripple will follow immediately and continue to rise at higher levels.
Indicators
MACD index passed on the negative side, just today, indicating that the price drop was not as severe as in other crypto markets. This means that Ripple remains at a pivoting point where both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible. The RSI index moved below value = 40, indicating a possible negative turn in the upcoming days.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Price Analysis
Litecoin's correlation with Bitcoin reached near zero during the last days, indicating Litecoin's move is much more independent than Bitcoin's. This could be positive news for Litecoin but in this case, Litecoin's price fell in levels which were shown during the previous stability period, before the long bull run.
The parallel channel between $46 and $40 was the status quo for many months during the stability period and, at this moment, we will be using them again for analyzing the current situation. As the price moved towards the parallel channel, we believe that the market depth will activate and prevent a price move below $40, even in the worst-case scenario. The moving averages are moving in an odd way and a signal, in this case, is highly impossible. The trading volumes remained low except for the liquidation day.
Indicators
MACD index moved again in the negative side, after spending 3 days in the positive one. This shows us that Litecoin never took the chance to rebound during the short bull run and the price drop might continue, even at $40. The RSI index laid at value = 33, which is almost a step before an "oversold" signal that will mark the bottom for the Litecoin's price.
Bitcoin Cash / US Dollar
Price Analysis
In the crypto markets and especially among major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Cash is on the worst position regarding technical indicators and metrics. The long-term support level at $230 broke and the price collapsed around $210. These price levels were evident back in April 2020, making all the in-between profits to disappear and the market structure to reverse for 2020.
The new levels show that Bitcoin Cash lack of integrity and cohesion in its core fundamental elements. Independence is almost not evident in this case and we believe that no support level or previous critical point in the market will stop a future downfall. The only thing that keeps us optimistic about Bitcoin Cash's case is that the bottom of the market will create a huge discount opportunity for many investors that want to trade coins instantly and get immediate profits.
Indicators
MACD index is still on the positive side, indicating that the change has not to affect yet the trend-setting mechanisms in the technical field. On the other hand, the RSI index is a step from hitting an "oversold" signal that will spark buys from different investors that follow this strategy.
Correlations
Bitcoin / Ethereum = 0.55 (- 0.30), Bitcoin / Ripple = 0.61 (- 0.26), Bitcoin / Litecoin = 0.04 (- 0.68), Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash = 0.53 (- 0.32)
The correlations collapsed during the market meltdown, showing that Bitcoin is moving uncorrelated with any other asset in the market. In this case, the crypto market is unbundling from the main cryptocurrency and tries to separate its moves with every coin to start moving in different directions. This move might lead to winning coins during the fall but also there can holders that want to have different positions in their portfolios. Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash move to "medium" correlation with Bitcoin for the last 20 days while Litecoin's correlation with Bitcoin dropped almost to zero, making the crypto the most neutral one among the major cryptos. In the next days, we will observe if the market will continue to move towards the same direction, or the altcoins will overcome Bitcoin and lead to another alt-season.
